How we work, and where the numbers come from.

Watermelon Status is a media brand and a small shop for project managers, people moving into the job, and PMP® candidates. We show how projects really go, using public evidence. Watermelon Status is a Canyon Sky Rain brand. Canyon Sky Rain, LLC is a Utah company.

Our four rules

1. 1Red part first. We say what went wrong, then explain it.
2. 2Evidence on screen. Every number carries its source and its n.
3. 3Dry, not snarky. We never mock a PM, a junior or a viewer.
4. 4A Monday move. Every piece ends with one honest thing a PM can do next week.

The Index method

The first cut of the Watermelon Index uses the delivery confidence ratings that the UK government publishes each year for its major projects. We count one record per project per published year: a rated project-year.

Source

UK Government Major Projects Portfolio data, gov.uk, Open Government Licence v3.0

Period

2013 to 2026 publications

Records

n = 2,199 rated project-years, out of 2,486 project-year records

Shade of amber

Amber/green, amber or amber/red. Through 2021 the published scale has five points. From 2022 it has three (red, amber, green), so later ratings are plain amber. We did not convert one scale into the other.

Green-looking

A project-year rated green or amber/green. The n = 109 group is the green-looking project-years where the same project also has a rating two years later. The finding is the share of those that were amber/red or red by then: 9 of 109, or 8.3%.

Amber run

An unbroken stretch of consecutive years in which one project was rated amber. There are n = 689 runs. Of those, 477 (69%) were still amber at the last published look, or were followed by a year with no rating, so we could not see them end.

Exclusions

287 of the 2,486 project-year records have no usable rating: exempt (106), not rated (159), reset (2) or blank (20). They are left out of every rate. Green-looking project-years with no rating two years later are left out of the two-year rate.

The full method note and the CSV come with the free download, once they are ready. A rating is a published judgment, not an outcome. We report what the ratings say and how they change, not whether a project succeeded.

Sources we use

Inside the Melon and the Shorts use public records only: published ratings, audit reports and other documents anyone can read. Every piece links to each source it uses. We do not use leaked documents, and we do not name private individuals.

• UK Government Major Projects Portfolio data, gov.uk

Other public sources are added to this list the first time a piece uses them.

About Mel

Mel is the narrator of the videos. Mel has no face and no biography. Every script is checked against its sources before Mel reads it.

Money and conflicts

We earn money from templates and exam practice in our shop. The Index and Inside the Melon never recommend our products inside the analysis. We have no sponsors and no affiliate links. If that ever changes, every sponsored or affiliate item will be labelled on the page where it appears.

PMP and PMBOK are registered marks of the Project Management Institute, Inc. We are not affiliated with or endorsed by PMI.

Corrections

When we get something wrong, we fix it, say what changed and date the fix. Send corrections to hello@watermelonstatus.com. See also Contact.